Saturday, August 11, 2007

This is not 1929

this is not 1929, yet.

During yesterday, all of notable banks made interveniation ibn order to pump money into the banksystem to maintain the proper liquidation (ECB, FED, JCB and so on..)

These news are bringing two different information: on the one hand, it suggests to the investors that the jitters in USA suprime mortgage market might spillover another countries, sectors,
and this situation claims fire service, which is can be treated as central bank's interveniation.
On the second hand, there is an positive view of this, in the case of ECB, in spite of targeting and following the inflation it could bolster the liquidation to ward off the spillovering juncture risks.

American FED had made interveniation similarly. There is a gripping moment, Ben Bernanke
said: the reason why 1929 happened was chiefly the contribution of the central bank to the
credit-bubble, the then cutting of the prime rate was a big mistake, cause it conducived to the easing liquidation.

The interveniation means that central banks were pumping lots of money into the system,
at this time approximately 94,8 billion euro were pumped by ECB. The carry traders were
just about to close their positions, it was caused by the distrustful situation. This is a self-impulsive process, because these closures could trigger some another closing sentiment.

In my firm belief this developing crisis will not be able to deteriorate the global financial climate. I represent it because i think perils of the developed market instruments are divided in wide range among the investors( CDO, CDS ), and through the multiple and very intricate relationships the negative effects can spread easily, that is to say risks predominantly are shifted to another sector by the banking sector, therefor i believe the banking sector is not endangered by any serious crisis.

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