Short Run - Open Up Our Wine, or Whine ?

By this time, I would like to start a disguss about the kurzfristige that is to say in english short run outlooks in the European Union, in a wider range: the World Economy.

Economic forecast, financial turmoil, investment fonds

The European Commission has released its economic forecast which predicts the UK, Germany and Spain to enter into recession in 2008. The reasons are manifold, but primarily a slowdown in exports and consumer spending are to blame for the current situation.

Brussels revealed that the previously mentioned three countries were likely to enter into two consecutive quarters of negative growth, which is the technical definition of recession. It should be added that recessions are a part of the economic cycles and it is sustained negative growth that raises concerns in connection with a wider economic depression.

The 15-nation euro zone has shown a growth of 1.3%, which is significantly lower than the previous projection of 1.7%. The European Central Bank kept the interest rate at 4.25% in order to ease the inflationary pressure that national governments face. Euro-zone governments had predicted a 2% inflation which was later modified to 3.2%. However, it seems that de facto inflation is going to creep up to 3.6%.

Brussels said that the UK economy had not grown in the second quarter of 2008 and it was likely to contract by an annual rate of 0.2% in the next two quarters. This would set the annual growth of the UK economy back to 1.1% in 2008, which is much less than the previous prediction of 1.7%. The housing market slump and the volatile financial markets are the primary reasons discussed in relation with the causes of slowdown.

A Treasury spokesman was confident that with the employment level at record highs, interest rates that are historically low and a decade of rising incomes behind us, “the UK is well placed to deal with these challenges”. In connection with the fear of a stubborn inflation, Joaquin Almunia, the Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, blamed the stumbling housing market, the struggling financial markets and the soaring commodity prices, such as food and oil.

The forecast of the Commission echoes the predictions of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which released its even grimmer projections earlier this week.

Let it shine

I wake up early morning for a loudest childsound came from the park in front of our home. I decided to gauge out "What the heck was that?". As I try to take a glance on those people who are out, I discovered an infant little boy, who wore only a dingy pants, not because He want to abandon himself to a healthy-sunbath.. He must be stems from a poor family, and when the dawn is coming, his parents send him to spend his day out. Prima childhood ?

His face, and life reminds me those african little boys, who haven't got the right social backgrounds too. If we take a view on Sudane (which is the biggest country in Africa) , and chiefly its Darfur region, we can see the desecrated and humiliated people walking in theirs refugee-camps. But we can find similarly poor and sad people, who are without any modern technology, any appropriate social benefits, which are organic parts of human beings.

As I surf on the internet, I forked out a link: One Laptop Per Child.

Im little bit contented, 'cause there are a lots of people on Earth who care about prostrates people throuout the World. One Laptop Per Child can be treated as a cliche nowdays, but its not true. When the globalisation process is heavily accelerated and we expected that its developements and new-opportunities will effects these regions... but the "trickle-down effects (stems from Stiglitz) doesn't working as we pre-expected. But, its not a question, If we want to help these people, we have to contribute their life with some very helpful and beneficial device. In present days, we communicate on the internet, pay checks and fulfil orders on it, and maybe, numerous of us able to work within the confines of a remote-home working possibility. Thus, i think, this enterprise is very notable nowdays, if we really want to make close ties with these people, and connect its life to the lastest carriage of our rapidly running globalisation-train.




Their statement: To create educational opportunities for the world's poorest children by providing each child with a rugged, low-cost, low-power, connected laptop with content and software designed for collaborative, joyful, self-empowered learning. Its good to be read, i was curious and take a leap to seek more information about the project and laptops.

Businessweek also released a column: "The nonprofit One Laptop per Child (OLPC), formed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology by Nicholas Negroponte, is dedicated to creating a revolutionary child-sized laptop that will bring learning, information and communication to children where education is needed most: in developing countries. Governments purchase the laptop directly, and distribute them to their schools. The OLPC laptop was designed to be robust, tactile, and expressive at the same time. It is an iconic machine that was designed for children and challenging conditions. As such, its design ensures that it is resilient, easily portable and energy efficient."

Cheer, Cheer,

As i heard in the last movie i saw: Let it shine. (its from original soundtrack of Over Her Dead Body, oh, almost forget, Eva Longoria was great, and at last i could hear her voice, awesome man, i like girls with soft but womanish sexy voice)

Soros' book - changing in paradigm?

George Soros has written his new book about the economy crisis, its title: The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means. According to his words, United States have to face the most difficult economy decline since 1930. In addition, the U.S economy is threatened by a self-strengthening deteriortive turmoil.

Here are some lines from the book:

"The United States is facing both a recession and a flight from the dollar. The decline in housing prices, the weight of accumulated household debt, and the losses and uncertainties in the banking system threaten to push the economy into a self-reinforcing decline.

Measures to combat this threat increase the supply of dollars. At the same time, the flight from the dollar has set up inflationary pressures through higher energy, commodity, and food prices.
The European Central Bank, whose mission is to maintain price stability, is reluctant to lower interest rates.

This has created a discord between U.S. and E.U. monetary policy and put upward pressure on the euro. The euro has appreciated more than the renminbi, creating trade tension between Europe and China.

The renminbi can be expected to catch up with the euro both to avoid prote ctionism in the United States and increasingly in Europe, and to contain imported price inflation in China. This will, in turn, increase prices at Wal-Mart and put additional pressure on the already beleaguered U.S. consumer.

Unfortunately this administration shows no understanding of the predicament in which it finds itself."

Soros, the legendary financier, philanthropist based his crisis theory on his highly experienced business-view ability.

I haven't read this book yet, but i look forward to take it in my hands, and contemplate his words, because i have got stern doubt this could be cause the biggest recession. We mustn't forget that this situation, the present circumstances are not up to the same economy environment, banking characterism, global financial and pecuniary system than that time.

With all due defferenc to his speculative arguments, I want to read it before product a mindless standpoint.

Les Fleurs du Mal

By Les Fleurs du Mal We mean circumstances which contain decline, sluggish and pessimism sentiment from the side of global market investors, but in the time of bearish market, it does not mean that nobody has got any viable chances to wangle something to compensate loss, or make up backlog and post notable merit. As I said, in the time of bearish market, well, We have to adapt to the situation, especielly to the temporary market psychology with another strategy approach.

We have to play on short, we have to subdue the cognitive discordance in order to fully consider "the prices are decreasing, and things can be morphed into bad". Many of Investors suffer from inproper percipiation in connection with the market process, therefore they intend to hold their position until the apocalyps. But, some of them are able to recognize this belief can lead to Mal, thus they make decisions, and transform their portfolio in accordance with the opportunities.

But, it is good to be cautios, and not to run into speculative frenzy. Investors had better sell those securities, stocks which are not in close ties with staple consumer needs. In recession time investors can turn to the assets of public service sector. Which prices may begin increas.

We must consider that the global market liquidity is about to run out of the neccessitate volume. It was the factor which facilited the increasing of prices of stocks. The short position could be winning pose, but the perils are around the markets, and investors have to provide a mature deliberation with high diligence before make decision.

Stock eXmaschange is All Around Us

Let me take an opportunity and tell with highest solemnity Merry Christmas to all of you who doesn't read my posts, who doesn't feel any remorse in connection with its efforts in 2007 to achieve the goals. Pace mr. reader, I would like to wish an effective new year in 2008 to all of You, do not forget: the only notable and considerable thing is the impossible, we just have to do which is it.

China must be happy

There are some signs that show the EMU (European Monetary
Union) is not immune against the mortgage crisis, which was
spilling over from U.S.A. According to this recognition, the ECB
(European Central Bank)would help the pecuniary system with extra sources.

ECB said in a statement friday night, that it would pump extra
sources in order to achievebigger liquidity in financial system.
But, on the question: "How much excess sourceswill be pumped
in the system by ECB?" the ECBdid not mention. Thought, it signed the durationof this process is long period, it assumed the pumping method will keep until
the end of this year.

The new intervention is promised after the time when the hunger
of liquidity increased such an extent that the three-mounth U.S.A
interest rate had been raising to 5,04 percentage, it is hardly
impermissable when the prime rate is 4,5 percentage.

Torrid in Chine

China's economy has been soaring for years with its
double digit growth rate (approximately: 11,5%).
This increase is fuelled by infrastructure investments,
stock market, and the high level of capital inflow. Throw the
raising key rate requirement its bankin system has been
heightening bolster.

Do not forget, Chine has the biggest population

on Earth with its ~ 1,5 billion inhabitants.

According to the economists the theory, which is said: "Chine will be able to be exportoriented in the long run" is absurd, nonsens. It is particularly reflected in the building industry, where we can find a huge steel-starving effect, consequently Chine shows signs that by and by it has been morphing to importoriented.

The fetching growth rate can impuls a healthy and seren envy

among european countries, which are wrestling with problems of

its continental european welfare modell.

These circumstances have caused a higher level of throb of

european's economy hearth.

Where have Chine left its economy problems? - its owned by past.