Is Confucianism over ?

Huh, that's interesting, i haven't been writing on this blog for more than half-year, and crisis is still alive, as the economists. They are trying to define the fundament reasons caused this global turmoil. From Aghion, Acemoglu, through Allan Schick until those whose name i don't even know.

Caused by savings?

Now, there is a newly presented explanation about the global turbulence from the pen of Floyd Norris.

Norris suggest that we have to seek the explanatory variables in the circumstense of the chines behavior, their high savings ability and willingness could substantially way trigger what happend.

Their savings (it's about 2500 billion dollar per year) could boost the big consumption of U.S households.

What did saving-prone behavior cause?

With respect to Norris's oppinion, i have to ask something interesting, from where did these huge propensity to save come? Some analysts says, it's confucianism, and old habits. I don't think so, i believe that these cultural habit, and willingness was fed from other resources, and it's the victim of chinese economic system rather than confucianism. As we all know, the chinese-leadership is about to controll peoples' life, to filter out certain internet-circulation and so on, and last but not least, provide or not provide some common services, e.q. pension and health care system. In the absence of these mentioned system chinese people are forced to save an enormous part of their payment for latter time, when they will old, and have to care about themselves.

Albeit, obviously, these model can not be sustainable after these crisis, cause chines will have to chose between two alternative: 1. either continue saving-habit and lose theirs jobs 2. or they begin to consume in order to save chine's industry.

Online marketing in time of crisis

When with serious and anxious problems are coupled the international finance and business society, companies are looking for in a fiercy way to utilize their opportunity to rise the level of sales. The role of the Marketing is appreciating. At present, when almost the total numbers of firms and companies are presented on Internet - by the form of advertisings - the online marketing experten taken a leap and trying to fork out some useable methode to reach higher return on investments.

Nonprofit Search Engine Marketing Professional Organization (SEMPO) surveyed over 867 search engine advertisers and SEM agencies to get a picture of the state of the search engine marketing industry. The 2007 SEMPO State of the Market Survey shows that contrary to worries about the economy, search engine marketing budgets have risen even higher than projected.

That’s the findings SEMPO is releasing today at the Search Engine Strategies (SES) conference in New York. They found that things look rosy for the search engine marketing industry. The North American SEM industry grew from $9.4 billion in 2006 to $12.2 billion in 2007. That’s more than earlier projections of $11.5 billion in 2007. Forecasts for this year was that the industry would reach $25.2 billion by 2011. Again, the projection is up significantly - last year the projection was $18.6 billion.

Spending on search engine marketing in North American is now projected to grow to $25.2 billion in 2011, up significantly (over 6 billion) from the forecast a year ago which was $18.6 billion. As the story repeats - marketers are shifting their advertising from offline advertising to spending more on paid search.

This should be especially good news for Google (and Google shareholders), since it’s the only search engine in the top four to get a bigger share of the market. 97% of the marketers survey use Google AdWords. 70% utilize Yahoo Sponsored Search and less marketers use MSN and Ask.com than last year.

“Search marketing spending is increasing at the expense of print magazine advertising,website development and other marketing functions, as marketers essentially shift the portions of their spending pie, following consumers as they increasingly rely on search engines to conduct pre-purchase research.”

Some of the reasons for the growth is that more small and midsize business are going online and using paid search. Plus the cost of advertising is going up because of more competition. Right now 87.4% of advertisers in the survey use paid search. The part that most surprises me is that SEO accounts for just 10.5% of their total marketing spend.

Planing online marketing campaign for the future

1. Outline expected results To be cleared for all of You

• Drive incremental sales. Show how your online marketing plan will directly impact sales. Your outcomes are pretty straightforward if your marketing directly generates sales. Tactics may include Paid Search, search engine optimization, online media buying, and email marketing.
• Drive leads into the sales pipeline. Show how you will engage your online audience and generate interest and demand that results in generating a lead. Tactics may include Paid Search, search engine optimization, online media buying, and email marketing.
• Engage and convert more visitors.Show how you will engage more visitors and get them to respond to your offer. Small lift in conversion rates can easily multiply sales. Tactics may include web effectiveness and multivariate testing.
• Interact with your audience.Show how you will engage your audience where they spend time online today. Buzz and referrals can be powerful and result in customer evaluation and adoption. Tactics may include web analytics, multivariate testing, and social media.
• Building your brand. Show how exposing your brand will result in greater recognition and adoption resulting in greater engagement and ultimately sales. Granted, this is a longer term approach that requires more buy-in. Tactics may include paid search, online media buying, and social media.

2. Preparing and educating Executives for Core strategy

It is important to reinforce with the decision makers the following:

• Integrated plan with critical mass. Show how complementary tactics yield even better results. For example, how search marketing and online media combined yields higher returns when integrated successfully.
• Marketing needs to be supported through the entire funnel. If there are other dependencies to driving sales, ensure that those parts of the funnel are held accountable to their target conversion rates.
• Budgeting for analytics is critical to measuring and delivering expected outcomes. Without a unified measurement tool, showing expected outcomes will be challenging. Ensure you have an analytics platform that captures leading KPIs along with bottom-line conversions. For example, your web analytics platform should be able to tell you how a opt-in email marketing campaign directly impacts sales on the website.
• A testing budget that allows for new champions to surface. We recommend setting aside around 10% of your budget if possible to test new hypothesis and in some cases emerging tactics.

3. Build executive confidence in your online strategy with clear financial expectations and outcomes.

With an integrated, well thought-through strategy, and the measurement of analytics to determine the financial outcomes, you will build confidence in your executives and gain support to approve and execute your online marketing plan.

Short Run - Open Up Our Wine, or Whine ?

By this time, I would like to start a disguss about the kurzfristige that is to say in english short run outlooks in the European Union, in a wider range: the World Economy.

Economic forecast, financial turmoil, investment fonds

The European Commission has released its economic forecast which predicts the UK, Germany and Spain to enter into recession in 2008. The reasons are manifold, but primarily a slowdown in exports and consumer spending are to blame for the current situation.

Brussels revealed that the previously mentioned three countries were likely to enter into two consecutive quarters of negative growth, which is the technical definition of recession. It should be added that recessions are a part of the economic cycles and it is sustained negative growth that raises concerns in connection with a wider economic depression.

The 15-nation euro zone has shown a growth of 1.3%, which is significantly lower than the previous projection of 1.7%. The European Central Bank kept the interest rate at 4.25% in order to ease the inflationary pressure that national governments face. Euro-zone governments had predicted a 2% inflation which was later modified to 3.2%. However, it seems that de facto inflation is going to creep up to 3.6%.

Brussels said that the UK economy had not grown in the second quarter of 2008 and it was likely to contract by an annual rate of 0.2% in the next two quarters. This would set the annual growth of the UK economy back to 1.1% in 2008, which is much less than the previous prediction of 1.7%. The housing market slump and the volatile financial markets are the primary reasons discussed in relation with the causes of slowdown.

A Treasury spokesman was confident that with the employment level at record highs, interest rates that are historically low and a decade of rising incomes behind us, “the UK is well placed to deal with these challenges”. In connection with the fear of a stubborn inflation, Joaquin Almunia, the Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, blamed the stumbling housing market, the struggling financial markets and the soaring commodity prices, such as food and oil.

The forecast of the Commission echoes the predictions of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which released its even grimmer projections earlier this week.

Let it shine

I wake up early morning for a loudest childsound came from the park in front of our home. I decided to gauge out "What the heck was that?". As I try to take a glance on those people who are out, I discovered an infant little boy, who wore only a dingy pants, not because He want to abandon himself to a healthy-sunbath.. He must be stems from a poor family, and when the dawn is coming, his parents send him to spend his day out. Prima childhood ?

His face, and life reminds me those african little boys, who haven't got the right social backgrounds too. If we take a view on Sudane (which is the biggest country in Africa) , and chiefly its Darfur region, we can see the desecrated and humiliated people walking in theirs refugee-camps. But we can find similarly poor and sad people, who are without any modern technology, any appropriate social benefits, which are organic parts of human beings.

As I surf on the internet, I forked out a link: One Laptop Per Child.

Im little bit contented, 'cause there are a lots of people on Earth who care about prostrates people throuout the World. One Laptop Per Child can be treated as a cliche nowdays, but its not true. When the globalisation process is heavily accelerated and we expected that its developements and new-opportunities will effects these regions... but the "trickle-down effects (stems from Stiglitz) doesn't working as we pre-expected. But, its not a question, If we want to help these people, we have to contribute their life with some very helpful and beneficial device. In present days, we communicate on the internet, pay checks and fulfil orders on it, and maybe, numerous of us able to work within the confines of a remote-home working possibility. Thus, i think, this enterprise is very notable nowdays, if we really want to make close ties with these people, and connect its life to the lastest carriage of our rapidly running globalisation-train.




Their statement: To create educational opportunities for the world's poorest children by providing each child with a rugged, low-cost, low-power, connected laptop with content and software designed for collaborative, joyful, self-empowered learning. Its good to be read, i was curious and take a leap to seek more information about the project and laptops.

Businessweek also released a column: "The nonprofit One Laptop per Child (OLPC), formed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology by Nicholas Negroponte, is dedicated to creating a revolutionary child-sized laptop that will bring learning, information and communication to children where education is needed most: in developing countries. Governments purchase the laptop directly, and distribute them to their schools. The OLPC laptop was designed to be robust, tactile, and expressive at the same time. It is an iconic machine that was designed for children and challenging conditions. As such, its design ensures that it is resilient, easily portable and energy efficient."

Cheer, Cheer,

As i heard in the last movie i saw: Let it shine. (its from original soundtrack of Over Her Dead Body, oh, almost forget, Eva Longoria was great, and at last i could hear her voice, awesome man, i like girls with soft but womanish sexy voice)

Soros' book - changing in paradigm?

George Soros has written his new book about the economy crisis, its title: The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means. According to his words, United States have to face the most difficult economy decline since 1930. In addition, the U.S economy is threatened by a self-strengthening deteriortive turmoil.

Here are some lines from the book:

"The United States is facing both a recession and a flight from the dollar. The decline in housing prices, the weight of accumulated household debt, and the losses and uncertainties in the banking system threaten to push the economy into a self-reinforcing decline.

Measures to combat this threat increase the supply of dollars. At the same time, the flight from the dollar has set up inflationary pressures through higher energy, commodity, and food prices.
The European Central Bank, whose mission is to maintain price stability, is reluctant to lower interest rates.

This has created a discord between U.S. and E.U. monetary policy and put upward pressure on the euro. The euro has appreciated more than the renminbi, creating trade tension between Europe and China.

The renminbi can be expected to catch up with the euro both to avoid prote ctionism in the United States and increasingly in Europe, and to contain imported price inflation in China. This will, in turn, increase prices at Wal-Mart and put additional pressure on the already beleaguered U.S. consumer.

Unfortunately this administration shows no understanding of the predicament in which it finds itself."

Soros, the legendary financier, philanthropist based his crisis theory on his highly experienced business-view ability.

I haven't read this book yet, but i look forward to take it in my hands, and contemplate his words, because i have got stern doubt this could be cause the biggest recession. We mustn't forget that this situation, the present circumstances are not up to the same economy environment, banking characterism, global financial and pecuniary system than that time.

With all due defferenc to his speculative arguments, I want to read it before product a mindless standpoint.

Les Fleurs du Mal

By Les Fleurs du Mal We mean circumstances which contain decline, sluggish and pessimism sentiment from the side of global market investors, but in the time of bearish market, it does not mean that nobody has got any viable chances to wangle something to compensate loss, or make up backlog and post notable merit. As I said, in the time of bearish market, well, We have to adapt to the situation, especielly to the temporary market psychology with another strategy approach.

We have to play on short, we have to subdue the cognitive discordance in order to fully consider "the prices are decreasing, and things can be morphed into bad". Many of Investors suffer from inproper percipiation in connection with the market process, therefore they intend to hold their position until the apocalyps. But, some of them are able to recognize this belief can lead to Mal, thus they make decisions, and transform their portfolio in accordance with the opportunities.

But, it is good to be cautios, and not to run into speculative frenzy. Investors had better sell those securities, stocks which are not in close ties with staple consumer needs. In recession time investors can turn to the assets of public service sector. Which prices may begin increas.

We must consider that the global market liquidity is about to run out of the neccessitate volume. It was the factor which facilited the increasing of prices of stocks. The short position could be winning pose, but the perils are around the markets, and investors have to provide a mature deliberation with high diligence before make decision.

Stock eXmaschange is All Around Us

Let me take an opportunity and tell with highest solemnity Merry Christmas to all of you who doesn't read my posts, who doesn't feel any remorse in connection with its efforts in 2007 to achieve the goals. Pace mr. reader, I would like to wish an effective new year in 2008 to all of You, do not forget: the only notable and considerable thing is the impossible, we just have to do which is it.